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A calamity is knocking, we can’t effort to wait!

 Fateh Sheikh

The tragedy in Iraq is deepening by the day and with it a catastrophe is threatening Iran and the “Greater Middle East”; a calamity more devastating than what the region has seen so far is in the making. The danger is very real and any complacency in this regard is both dangerous and plainly irresponsible. The consequences of inaction and vacillation both for the Iranian society and the people of Iran would be inconceivable and catastrophic.

One of the consequences of the current situation in the Middle East is the confrontation and the stand off between the US and the Islamic Republic on the back of the US strategy failure in Iraq. The dispatch of more troops and all other latest developments, ten days after the launch of the US’s “New Strategy” in Iraq, indicate that the Bush administration is stubbornly continuing with its militaristic strategy, with minor changes in diplomacy and tactics.

Predictably there is no particular mention of negotiation with Iran in Bush’s new strategy in Iraq. On the contrary it seems that the US forces have been deliberately targeting the Iran-backed networks of weapon supply and training for the insurgents. It is widely acknowledged, even by some of the reputable US think tanks that 2006 has been a year marred by setbacks and defeats for the US and at the same time a year of encroachment and advances of the Iranian regime in Iraq. Iraq has now become a battleground for direct confrontation between the US and Iran. The escalating tension between the Democrats and elements of the Republicans with Bush administration over the dispatch of more troops to Iraq and the ever widening differing views of US rivals, Europe, Russia and China on Iraq and the vulnerability and diminishing US position in the world have tilted the balance of power in favour of the Islamic Republic to challenge the US in Iraq.

The Islamic Republic’s foot hold in large parts of Iraq, especially in two strategic regions of Baghdad and Basra, through relatively powerful militia forces, has helped Iran to assume a greater influence in Iraq than the US. There is even the talk of a joint attempt by Islamic Republic and its proxies in Iraq to almost clear Baghdad of its Sunni militias population and impose their own rule over entire Baghdad. Having said this, the “Iraqi Government” is in the main controlled by the Islamic Republic. The constant pressure put on Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minster, by Bush, Rice and Gates is a reminder that the Islamic Republic is calling the shots in Iraq. Even Aany attempts by Bush to sideline Maliki will further undermine the US position. The outcome of such an approach will only lead to further deterioration of the situation in Iraq.

The US assault on an office run by the Iranian government in the city of Arbil and the arrest of its staff on the same day that the “New Strategy” was announced, was more than just flexing of mussels. This incident was followed by a series of diplomatic trips and meetings by the US Secretary of State and the Defence Secretary to seek the support of the Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan in some kind of coalition against the Islamic regime. All these and the dispatch of another war ship to the Persian Gulf is a further indication that the Bush administration in its attempts to stage a less costly escape from the Iraq quagmire is capable of playing with fire and enter into a new adventure.

George Bush’s desperate attempt to salvage some kind of “victory” in his reaming years in office has given the current Middle East crisis and the failure of US policy in the region a very serious and dangerous dimension. The growing differences within the US establishment and the insistence of the New Conservatives on perusing their extremist and militaristic adventure has increased the possibility of even more wars and bloodsheds in the next two years. To make the situation even worse the rivalries of the Imperialist countries of Europe, China and Russia with the US has escalated and has focused on the Middle East. These developments have brought the US and Islamic Regime’s confrontation over Iraq and the Middle East to a head. The next two years will be crucial.

As far as the people of Iran are concerned whatever direction these conflicts will take one thing is clear: the calamity is knocking and we can not effort to wait. Workers and people should unite their ranks in work places and in the neighbourhoods and by challenging the ideas and politics of waiting in anticipation for an opening, take the matters into their own hands and put an end to the reign of the Islamic regime. This is the only way to seize the initiative and redefine their current equation in Middle East to the advantage of all the people of the region and towards a permanent peace. This is not only possible but the only effective way of preventing a catastrophe much greater than what is happening in Iraq. Our unity and the rthrow of the Islamic Republic is the only way forward.